Measuring Credit Risk: Probability of Default (PD), Loss Given Default (LGD), and Exposure at Default (EAD)
Susan Hayes, a credit risk analyst at a commercial bank, is evaluating a $75 million revolving credit facility extended to a corporate client. The facility currently has an outstanding drawn balance of $45 million. The remaining undrawn commitment is $30 million, and the bank applies a Credit Conversion Factor (CCF) of 60% for such commitments.
The bank's internal models provide a 1-year Probability of Default (PD) of 1.25% for this client. In the event of default, the estimated gross recovery rate on the Exposure at Default (EAD) is 35%. However, expected direct legal and administrative costs associated with recovery efforts are projected to be $2.5 million, regardless of the ultimate EAD.
Susan also notes the following information from the bank's risk systems:
* The client's 3-year credit default swap (CDS) spread is 280 basis points.
* The 1-year 95% Value at Risk (VaR) for the bank's entire corporate loan portfolio is $150 million.
* The bank's internal economic capital allocation for this facility is 7% of the total facility limit.
What is the estimated 1-year Expected Loss (EL) for this specific credit facility?